Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation
1.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.
Measured over 1.7M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.7M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.7M
- Best context
- 57.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.2% at 1400-1599 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.0% at 0-999, 60.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (10,301 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (24,386 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (13,671 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (122 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (93 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (22,359 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (35,601 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (19,455 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (368 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (262 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (44,639 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (62,158 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (26,416 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (842 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (880 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (71,940 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (117,148 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (36,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (1,613 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (737 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (93,186 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (177,264 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (47,146 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (1,962 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (297 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (113,651 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (203,526 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (54,236 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (2,748 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (249 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (99,749 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (167,133 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (39,474 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,249 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (37 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (85,094 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (78,437 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (11,085 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (220 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (29,092 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (8,835 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (379 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.8% — from 1.7M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 1.7M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.2% (38K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (874K games) against 52.5% in Rapid (248K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 228K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 320K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 374K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 308K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 175K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 1.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 570K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 874K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 248K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.9% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.