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Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation

48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.4%Range (90% confident): 58.1% – 58.8%Based on 48K games
0%58.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.1% – 58.8%
Outcome Distribution
56.5%3.8%39.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Ng5
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation
Analyzen=48K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 58.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.1% and 58.8%), based on 48K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 59%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (155 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.5% win rate (472 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.8% win rate (1,107 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.9% win rate (2,578 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.2% win rate (5,293 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.8% win rate (9,054 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.0% win rate (12,556 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.1% win rate (13,559 games)
  • 2500+: 58.5% win rate (2,857 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (67%), worst in Classical (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 66.5% win rate (88 games)
  • Bullet: 57.1% win rate (20,680 games)
  • Blitz: 56.0% win rate (23,132 games)
  • Rapid: 56.8% win rate (3,515 games)
  • Classical: 50.8% win rate (216 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (52 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (553 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (1,191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (257 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 67.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (2,102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (2,670 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (469 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (2,863 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (881 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (4,330 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (7,062 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (1,084 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 91.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (6,853 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (6,067 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (619 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.1% expected score (2,452 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (381 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (2)
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Ivanchuk Defense
56.1%
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation, Kasparov Attack
49.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 48K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (2.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (66.5%) outperforms Classical (50.8%) by 15.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 39.2%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 472 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 53.3%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.0%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 57.0%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.7%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.6%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 55.4%-58.1%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-56.4%) win rate for white (216 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.4%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Modern Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.