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Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit

85K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.0%Range (90% confident): 55.7% – 56.3%Based on 85K games
0%56.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.7% – 56.3%
Outcome Distribution
54.2%3.4%42.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Qh5
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit
Analyzen=85K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 56.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.7% and 56.3%), based on 85K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +18.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.0% · Bullet best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.9% win rate (3,640 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (2,812 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.5% win rate (3,961 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (7,230 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.1% win rate (12,462 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.0% win rate (18,681 games)
  • 2000-2199: 56.8% win rate (19,411 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.5% win rate (14,951 games)
  • 2500+: 55.8% win rate (2,186 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (57%), worst in UltraBullet (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.2% win rate (475 games)
  • Bullet: 57.2% win rate (35,895 games)
  • Blitz: 53.7% win rate (40,067 games)
  • Rapid: 45.3% win rate (8,381 games)
  • Classical: 47.6% win rate (516 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (835 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (1,395 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (907 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (975 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (845 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (144 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (1,358 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,568 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (825 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (3,201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (2,887 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (935 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (94 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (5,076 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (5,739 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,436 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (6,433 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (10,759 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.8% expected score (7,213 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (10,916 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (9,150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (5,372 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (417 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (1,722 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (456 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 85K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 57.5% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (57.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.2%) by 12.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 38.9% (90% CI: 37.5%-40.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 42.7%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 57.5% (90% CI: 56.8%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.0%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.5%-49.0%) win rate for white (475 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.8%-57.6%) win rate for white (36K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.1%) win rate for white (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.2%) win rate for white (8.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 44.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (516 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, Schaeffer Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.0%-54.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.