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Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit

32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.8%Based on 32K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.8%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%3.4%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Ng5
Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit
Analyzen=32K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 52.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 52.8%), based on 32K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.2% · Blitz best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (1,518 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (2,317 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (3,259 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (5,113 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (5,631 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (6,603 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.1% win rate (4,779 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.1% win rate (2,495 games)
  • 2500+: 52.1% win rate (199 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (51%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.0% win rate (185 games)
  • Bullet: 50.2% win rate (13,121 games)
  • Blitz: 51.2% win rate (14,200 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (4,278 games)
  • Classical: 42.2% win rate (130 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (612 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (604 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (294 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (939 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (931 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (416 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,230 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,392 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (586 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,016 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,211 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (791 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,992 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,598 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (975 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (2,451 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (3,348 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (758 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (2,154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (410 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,542 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (902 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 32K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (5.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (41.0%) by 10.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 199 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 41.0% (90% CI: 35.2%-47.0%) win rate for white (185 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.9%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.9%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.6%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit has a 42.2% (90% CI: 35.2%-49.3%) win rate for white (130 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Hector Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.