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Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation

15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.5%Based on 15M games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
47.2%4.5%48.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nc6
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=15M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 49.5%), based on 15M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.6% win rate (289,083 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (736,273 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.2% win rate (1,463,567 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (2,399,187 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (3,370,457 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (3,591,256 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (2,258,004 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.9% win rate (1,017,455 games)
  • 2500+: 50.2% win rate (158,608 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.1% win rate (25,662 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (6,009,699 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (7,269,373 games)
  • Rapid: 47.0% win rate (1,915,017 games)
  • Classical: 45.4% win rate (64,139 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (300 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (104,028 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (131,422 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (53,043 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (290 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (912 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (287,014 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (325,421 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (121,287 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (1,639 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (2,416 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (557,247 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (672,269 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (226,433 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (5,202 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (4,935 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (848,001 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,181,352 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (351,338 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (13,561 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (6,612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,126,742 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,759,770 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (457,225 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (20,108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (4,740 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,251,151 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,867,157 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (450,261 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (17,947 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (3,388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,017,027 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,019,222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (213,557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (4,810 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (2,222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (682,998 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (290,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (40,881 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (571 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (137 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (135,491 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (21,977 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (992 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (2)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack
40.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Rubinstein Variation
50.9%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 15M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.2% win rate for white (159K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.4%) outperforms Classical (45.4%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 289K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 736K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.0M Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 159K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.7%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white (6.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.1%) win rate for white (7.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.1%) win rate for white (1.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.7%) win rate for white (64K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.