1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 43.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 41.2% and 45.2%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 29% → 44%
Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Rapid (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 40.9% (90% CI: 38.9%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.3% win rate for white (305 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (45.2%) outperforms Rapid (35.9%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 28.9% (90% CI: 23.7%-34.3%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 41.5% (90% CI: 35.1%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 34.3% (90% CI: 28.5%-40.3%) win rate for white, based on 172 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 30.8% (90% CI: 25.3%-36.5%) win rate for white, based on 182 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 42.5% (90% CI: 37.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 256 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 45.9% (90% CI: 40.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 213 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 37.3% (90% CI: 30.1%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 54.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 305 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.2%-48.1%) win rate for white (759 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 37.5% (90% CI: 34.1%-40.9%) win rate for white (555 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a 35.9% (90% CI: 31.2%-40.8%) win rate for white (267 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack is slightly favors black with a 40.9% (90% CI: 38.9%-43.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.