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Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation

223K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 52.1%Based on 223K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 52.1%
Outcome Distribution
48.3%7.1%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Kxd1
Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation
Analyzen=223K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.1%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 52.1%), based on 223K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.8% win rate (12,998 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.2% win rate (22,177 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.3% win rate (29,208 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.8% win rate (32,585 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.3% win rate (29,546 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (31,029 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.2% win rate (28,756 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.5% win rate (24,726 games)
  • 2500+: 57.3% win rate (11,742 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.9% win rate (1,483 games)
  • Bullet: 51.1% win rate (105,667 games)
  • Blitz: 47.5% win rate (88,130 games)
  • Rapid: 40.4% win rate (26,486 games)
  • Classical: 35.9% win rate (1,001 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (4,017 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (6,463 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (2,483 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (7,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (9,889 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (4,788 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 25.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (249 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (11,680 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (11,140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (5,959 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (180 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (344 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (14,862 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (11,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (5,682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (349 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (376 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (15,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (10,356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (3,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (299 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (17,102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (11,595 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,943 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (90 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (79 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (13,757 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (13,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (1,426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (12,365 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 61.4% expected score (11,204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (1,081 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.6% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.0% expected score (8,949 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (2,704 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 223K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.3% win rate for white (12K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (35.9%) by 15.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a sharpness score of 92.9 (decisive), meaning 92.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 38.8% (90% CI: 38.1%-39.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 55.0%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.5%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.1%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white (106K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white (88K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 40.4% (90% CI: 39.9%-40.8%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a 35.9% (90% CI: 33.4%-38.4%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.