TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation

3.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.5%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 50.6%Based on 3.3M games
0%50.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 50.6%
Outcome Distribution
48.5%4.0%47.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.d3
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation
Analyzen=3.3M
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 50.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 50.6%), based on 3.3M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.6% win rate (106,795 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (196,319 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (371,179 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.5% win rate (548,290 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (632,613 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (600,949 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.8% win rate (454,786 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (294,375 games)
  • 2500+: 52.2% win rate (45,902 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.8% win rate (26,364 games)
  • Bullet: 49.0% win rate (1,662,404 games)
  • Blitz: 48.2% win rate (1,283,107 games)
  • Rapid: 46.4% win rate (269,821 games)
  • Classical: 42.3% win rate (9,512 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (287 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (32,828 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (51,130 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (22,409 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (80,221 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (84,033 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (30,305 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (660 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (3,023 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (168,478 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (155,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (42,463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (8,077 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (248,363 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (232,406 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (56,715 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (2,729 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (7,370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (302,734 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (265,843 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (54,345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (2,321 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (4,880 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (328,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (230,412 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (35,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (1,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (265,226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (166,776 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (20,796 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (198,056 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (89,215 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (6,743 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (38,220 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (7,525 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (97 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation, Stein Attack
55.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (46K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.0%) outperforms Classical (42.3%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 196K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 371K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 548K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 633K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 601K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 455K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 294K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.3%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.1%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.6%) win rate for white (270K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.5%-43.2%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.