TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit

249K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score60.5%Range (90% confident): 60.4% – 60.7%Based on 249K games
0%60.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 60.4% – 60.7%
Outcome Distribution
59.1%2.7%38.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Nxf7
Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit
Analyzen=249K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 60.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 60.4% and 60.7%), based on 249K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +26.9% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~58%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 58.1% win rate (1,298 games)
  • 1000-1199: 61.5% win rate (5,689 games)
  • 1200-1399: 61.2% win rate (14,075 games)
  • 1400-1599: 63.0% win rate (27,281 games)
  • 1600-1799: 61.6% win rate (44,549 games)
  • 1800-1999: 58.6% win rate (59,280 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.3% win rate (52,193 games)
  • 2200-2499: 56.3% win rate (36,038 games)
  • 2500+: 56.2% win rate (8,347 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (62%), worst in Classical (54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 62.2% win rate (697 games)
  • Bullet: 59.6% win rate (130,027 games)
  • Blitz: 58.4% win rate (97,561 games)
  • Rapid: 59.5% win rate (20,046 games)
  • Classical: 54.3% win rate (419 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (760 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (438 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.3% expected score (3,223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 65.2% expected score (1,994 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (442 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 85.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (55 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (7,350 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.5% expected score (5,369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,297 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (92 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.5% expected score (13,031 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (11,191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (2,918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.8% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 66.6% expected score (186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (19,070 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (20,504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (4,676 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (113 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.3% expected score (25,603 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (27,580 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (5,746 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (172 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (26,262 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (22,000 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (3,740 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (26,876 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (8,024 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,097 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (7,852 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (461 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (32 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 59.1% (90% CI: 59.0%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 249K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 63.0% win rate for white (27K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (59.6%) outperforms Classical (54.3%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 58.1% (90% CI: 55.8%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 61.5% (90% CI: 60.5%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 61.2% (90% CI: 60.6%-61.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 63.0% (90% CI: 62.5%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 61.6% (90% CI: 61.2%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 58.6% (90% CI: 58.3%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.9%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.3%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 62.2% (90% CI: 59.2%-65.2%) win rate for white (697 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 59.6% (90% CI: 59.4%-59.9%) win rate for white (130K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 58.4% (90% CI: 58.2%-58.7%) win rate for white (98K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 59.5% (90% CI: 58.9%-60.0%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-58.3%) win rate for white (419 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit is statistically favors white with a 59.1% (90% CI: 59.0%-59.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.