Does Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit work for White at All Ratings?
Snapshot
At All Ratings, Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit gives White a +20.7% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is effective.
Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit
White GambitSource Lichess
View As
Play This+21%All Ratings
Minimum Advantage+20.7%
White wins at least 20.7% more often than loses
Rating TrendPeak: +26.9% at 1400-1599
Win%59.1%
Games249K
Breakpoint (Overall)Never
6.Nxf7
Caro-Kann Defense: Alien GambitWhite Gambit
Rating
Time Control
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | +13.3% | 58.1% | 1.7% | 40.2% | 1.3K |
| 1000-1199 | +22.7% | 61.5% | 1.8% | 36.7% | 5.7K |
| 1200-1399 | +23.0% | 61.2% | 1.8% | 37.0% | 14K |
| 1400-1599 | +26.9% | 63.0% | 1.9% | 35.1% | 27K |
| 1600-1799 | +24.7% | 61.6% | 2.3% | 36.1% | 45K |
| 1800-1999 | +19.2% | 58.6% | 2.6% | 38.8% | 59K |
| 2000-2199 | +17.0% | 57.3% | 3.2% | 39.5% | 52K |
| 2200-2499 | +15.4% | 56.3% | 3.6% | 40.1% | 36K |
| 2500+ | +14.6% | 56.2% | 4.0% | 39.8% | 8.3K |
Full Opening StatsSee rating/time-control breakdowns for White on the opening stats page
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit sound?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has no overall breakpoint in Lichess data, meaning White wins more than loses even at the highest rating brackets across all time controls. This is a statistically sound gambit at all levels analyzed.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a 59.1% (90% CI: 59.0%-59.3%) win rate for White overall, with a 2.7% draw rate and 38.1% loss rate. This is based on 249K games from Lichess.
What is the best rating to play the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit performs best at 1400-1599, where White has a minimum advantage of +26.9%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 26.9 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (+21.2% edge) outperforms Classical (+5.8% edge) by 15.4 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Does the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit breakpoint vary by time control?
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: Never, Blitz: Never, Rapid: 0-999, Classical: 1600-1799. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit is extremely sharp with only 2.7% draws—97.3% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
Should I play the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit is viable at all rating levels in Lichess data. White maintains a statistical edge throughout. It's an excellent choice if you enjoy sharp, initiative-based play.
How do I defend against the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit is statistically challenging to defend at all levels. As Black, focus on quick development, early castling, and piece trades. Don't get greedy with extra material. Consider declining the gambit or finding a transposition if you're uncomfortable with sharp positions.
How reliable is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit data?
This analysis is based on 249K games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.