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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack

856K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.8%Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 49.9%Based on 856K games
0%49.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 49.9%
Outcome Distribution
48.0%3.7%48.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.h4
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack
Analyzen=856K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 49.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 49.9%), based on 856K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (24,782 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.0% win rate (78,391 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.7% win rate (145,055 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.8% win rate (182,715 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (163,344 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.8% win rate (110,151 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (79,989 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (61,862 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (9,806 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.9% win rate (388 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (218,938 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (455,903 games)
  • Rapid: 47.0% win rate (174,687 games)
  • Classical: 45.1% win rate (6,179 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (7,407 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (13,850 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (3,501 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (18,098 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (44,983 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (15,168 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (27,843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (81,312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (35,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (746 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (33,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (98,091 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (49,163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (1,948 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (35,096 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (84,099 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (41,757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (2,300 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (31,548 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (57,331 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (20,431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (27,105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (45,544 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (7,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (31,409 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (28,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,373 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (58 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (7,032 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,679 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
47.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 856K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (62K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.3%) outperforms Classical (45.1%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 145K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 183K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 163K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 110K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 49.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-54.1%) win rate for white (388 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (219K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.9%) win rate for white (456K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.2%) win rate for white (175K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.1%) win rate for white (6.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.