TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score55.7%Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 55.8%Based on 1.1M games
0%55.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 55.8%
Outcome Distribution
53.6%4.2%42.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.h4
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation
Analyzen=1.1M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 55.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.6% and 55.8%), based on 1.1M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (3,501 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.9% win rate (17,036 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.3% win rate (51,187 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.1% win rate (111,522 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.8% win rate (194,741 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.6% win rate (258,278 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.9% win rate (243,911 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.9% win rate (208,922 games)
  • 2500+: 53.4% win rate (48,864 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.1% win rate (238 games)
  • Bullet: 54.4% win rate (370,829 games)
  • Blitz: 53.1% win rate (633,361 games)
  • Rapid: 53.8% win rate (128,307 games)
  • Classical: 54.7% win rate (5,227 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,223 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (204 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (9,116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (6,562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (1,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (22,824 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (23,057 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (5,199 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (37,848 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (58,713 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (14,314 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (57,075 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (110,039 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (26,210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (1,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (67,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (152,390 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (36,596 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (68,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (143,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (30,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (78,230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (117,496 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (12,985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (207 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (27,656 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (20,210 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (983 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.1%) by 10.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.2%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 195K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 258K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 244K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 209K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 38.8%-49.3%) win rate for white (238 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.5%) win rate for white (371K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.3%) win rate for white (633K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.1%) win rate for white (128K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.9%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.