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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 49.7%Based on 16K games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 49.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%4.4%48.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.b4
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 49.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 49.7%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.7% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.1% win rate (353 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (781 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.1% win rate (1,571 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (2,536 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.8% win rate (4,284 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (3,903 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.2% win rate (2,329 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.2% win rate (504 games)
  • 2500+: 48.6% win rate (86 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.8% win rate (14 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (2,285 games)
  • Blitz: 46.7% win rate (9,551 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (4,283 games)
  • Classical: 40.1% win rate (214 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (444 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (237 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (348 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (783 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (419 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (367 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,532 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (598 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (2,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (935 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (88 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (287 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (2,206 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (398 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,283 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (626 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (162 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (327 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.8%) outperforms Classical (40.1%) by 9.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 46.1% (90% CI: 41.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 353 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.9%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 781 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 504 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.5%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.6%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.9%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a 40.1% (90% CI: 34.7%-45.7%) win rate for white (214 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack is statistically balanced with a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.