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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation

155K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.4%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.6%Based on 155K games
0%53.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
51.3%4.0%44.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Ne2
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation
Analyzen=155K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 53.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 53.6%), based on 155K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.7% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (808 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (2,591 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (5,618 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (10,923 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (22,210 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.9% win rate (38,213 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (42,737 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.5% win rate (28,588 games)
  • 2500+: 54.1% win rate (2,834 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (18 games)
  • Bullet: 52.9% win rate (46,375 games)
  • Blitz: 51.1% win rate (90,465 games)
  • Rapid: 49.2% win rate (17,151 games)
  • Classical: 39.2% win rate (513 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (287 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (419 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (102 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (761 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,390 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (437 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,304 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,238 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,525 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (6,328 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,999 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (6,866 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,859 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (161 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (10,485 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (23,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (4,055 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (10,607 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (27,897 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (4,157 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (11,575 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (14,982 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,008 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (1,965 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (842 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 155K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (29K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.9%) outperforms Classical (39.2%) by 13.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 43.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 808 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.1%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.5%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.2%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white (90K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.8%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation has a 39.2% (90% CI: 35.7%-42.7%) win rate for white (513 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Bronstein Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.