Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense
195K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.8%.
Measured over 195K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 195K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 195K
- Best context
- 50.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 41.2% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.0% at 0-999, 40.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (4,040 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (14,490 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (8,163 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (56 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (5,803 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (17,926 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (10,647 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (214 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,229 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (17,081 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (10,616 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (433 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (8,234 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (15,491 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (8,102 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (553 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (6,485 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (11,291 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (4,782 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (246 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (82 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (5,177 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (7,231 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (2,165 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (103 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,805 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5,554 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (669 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (7,334 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (6,097 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (368 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,922 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (567 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.4% and 47.8% — from 195K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 195K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate?
Playing the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 195K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense perform best?
The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (96K games) against 47.0% in Rapid (46K games).
How sharp is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense?
The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 55.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 240 Lichess games.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 52K Lichess games.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 96K Lichess games.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.
What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense a good opening?
The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 50.3%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.