TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense

195K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.6%Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 47.8%Based on 195K games
0%47.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.5%4.1%50.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...g6
Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense
Analyzen=195K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 47.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 47.8%), based on 195K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~47%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (26,763 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.8% win rate (34,623 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.6% win rate (35,379 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (32,408 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.6% win rate (22,828 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.7% win rate (14,758 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (11,077 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.0% win rate (13,823 games)
  • 2500+: 44.9% win rate (3,508 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Rapid (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.3% win rate (240 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (52,029 games)
  • Blitz: 45.1% win rate (95,728 games)
  • Rapid: 44.7% win rate (45,528 games)
  • Classical: 46.1% win rate (1,642 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (4,040 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (14,490 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (8,163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (5,803 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (17,926 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (10,647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (214 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,229 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (17,081 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (10,616 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (433 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (8,234 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (15,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (8,102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (553 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (6,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (11,291 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (4,782 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (246 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (82 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (5,177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (7,231 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (2,165 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (103 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,805 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5,554 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (669 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (7,334 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (6,097 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,922 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (567 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Three Knights Opening
49.6%
Variations (3)
Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense
48.0%
Three Knights Opening: Schlechter Variation
48.3%
Three Knights Opening: Steinitz-Rosenthal Variation
53.8%
Analyze Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate?

The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 195K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense perform best?

The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (23K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (42.9%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense?

The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 42.9% (90% CI: 37.7%-48.1%) win rate for white (240 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.4%) win rate for white (52K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white (96K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.5%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense a good opening?

The Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.