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Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense

519K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.4%Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 50.5%Based on 519K games
0%50.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 50.5%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%3.2%48.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...f5
Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense
Analyzen=519K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 50.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.3% and 50.5%), based on 519K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (34,826 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (55,555 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.0% win rate (70,346 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (85,273 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (90,527 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (86,704 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (59,482 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.5% win rate (32,865 games)
  • 2500+: 43.1% win rate (3,784 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Rapid (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.9% win rate (605 games)
  • Bullet: 50.4% win rate (222,734 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (215,193 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (78,231 games)
  • Classical: 48.6% win rate (2,599 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (8,838 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (16,961 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (8,926 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (15,455 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (25,782 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (14,044 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (229 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (20,847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (32,248 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (16,668 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (490 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (28,693 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (39,339 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (16,159 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (909 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (116 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (35,533 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (41,741 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (12,519 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (618 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (41,575 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (37,591 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (7,220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (39,554 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (17,497 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (38 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (28,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,837 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,575 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (197 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Three Knights Opening
49.6%
Variations (3)
Three Knights Opening: Steinitz Defense
50.3%
Three Knights Opening: Schlechter Variation
48.3%
Three Knights Opening: Steinitz-Rosenthal Variation
53.8%
Analyze Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate?

The Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 519K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense perform best?

The Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (3.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.4%) outperforms Classical (46.9%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense?

The Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-52.1%) win rate for white (605 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.2%) win rate for white (223K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.8%) win rate for white (215K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.7%) win rate for white (78K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense a good opening?

The Three Knights Opening: Winawer Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.