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Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit

3.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score60.8%Range (90% confident): 59.5% – 62.2%Based on 3.4K games
0%60.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 59.5% – 62.2%
Outcome Distribution
59.0%3.6%37.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Bb6
Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit
Analyzen=3.4K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 60.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 59.5% and 62.2%), based on 3.4K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +22.4% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.1% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 63%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.9% win rate (24 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.5% win rate (79 games)
  • 1800-1999: 60.3% win rate (298 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.4% win rate (818 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.2% win rate (1,618 games)
  • 2500+: 63.0% win rate (595 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (63%), worst in Rapid (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 60.8% win rate (1,354 games)
  • Blitz: 58.4% win rate (1,885 games)
  • Rapid: 50.7% win rate (187 games)
  • Classical: 63.0% win rate (12 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.6% expected score (219 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.8% expected score (586 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (952 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.2% expected score (520 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 59.0% (90% CI: 57.6%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 63.0% win rate for white (595 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (60.8%) outperforms Rapid (50.7%) by 10.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 60.3% (90% CI: 55.6%-64.9%) win rate for white, based on 298 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 57.4% (90% CI: 54.6%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 818 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 58.2% (90% CI: 56.2%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 63.0% (90% CI: 59.7%-66.2%) win rate for white, based on 595 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 60.8% (90% CI: 58.6%-62.9%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 58.4% (90% CI: 56.6%-60.3%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-56.6%) win rate for white (187 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Taimanov Variation, Bastrikov Variation, Ponomariov Gambit is statistically favors white with a 59.0% (90% CI: 57.6%-60.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.