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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.9%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.5%Based on 18K games
0%51.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.1%3.6%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qa5
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 52.5%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · Classical best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.8% win rate (1,396 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.6% win rate (1,778 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.4% win rate (2,117 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.2% win rate (2,739 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.4% win rate (2,967 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.4% win rate (3,519 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.4% win rate (2,135 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.4% win rate (1,017 games)
  • 2500+: 49.0% win rate (218 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in Blitz (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.2% win rate (62 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (4,003 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (9,182 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (4,435 games)
  • Classical: 57.7% win rate (204 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (840 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (363 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (973 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,108 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (605 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (485 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (1,402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (782 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (612 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (996 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (1,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (793 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (459 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (427 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (536 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (177 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.1% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.2%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 43.4%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 218 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.1%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.4%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation has a 57.7% (90% CI: 52.0%-63.3%) win rate for white (204 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Declined, Wing Formation is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.