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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.1%Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 52.6%Based on 33K games
0%52.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.6% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.6%3.0%46.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qc7
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.6% and 52.6%), based on 33K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.7% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 32% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.9% win rate (44 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (245 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.1% win rate (1,098 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (2,948 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (5,756 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.5% win rate (8,776 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.9% win rate (8,233 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.2% win rate (5,041 games)
  • 2500+: 53.8% win rate (603 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (10,655 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (18,564 games)
  • Rapid: 50.8% win rate (3,414 games)
  • Classical: 44.8% win rate (109 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.4% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (91 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (540 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (992 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,638 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,403 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (3,571 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (750 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (2,111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (5,373 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,450 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (4,941 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (808 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,553 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (509 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.5% expected score (91 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (1)
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation, Siberian Trap
36.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (5.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (44.8%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 245 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 0.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 603 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.4%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 37.1%-52.6%) win rate for white (109 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit Accepted, Siberian Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.