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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line

64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.5%Based on 64K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
47.3%3.6%49.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Qxd4
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line
Analyzen=64K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 49.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.5%), based on 64K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.9% win rate (1,248 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (4,288 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.0% win rate (8,523 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (13,295 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.6% win rate (14,013 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.7% win rate (10,692 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (6,931 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (4,111 games)
  • 2500+: 51.4% win rate (1,223 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (18,985 games)
  • Blitz: 47.3% win rate (33,746 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (11,106 games)
  • Classical: 39.6% win rate (482 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (702 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (468 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (78 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,586 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (445 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,780 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (5,173 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,528 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,716 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (3,242 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (3,037 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (7,557 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (3,191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,767 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (5,918 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,946 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (60 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,983 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (3,426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (512 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,388 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,564 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (191 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 64K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Classical (39.6%) by 9.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 44.9% (90% CI: 42.6%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.7%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line has a 39.6% (90% CI: 36.0%-43.3%) win rate for white (482 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line is statistically balanced with a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.