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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 51.3%Based on 18K games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 51.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%2.9%47.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bc4
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.9%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 51.3%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +2.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.1% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (108 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (508 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (1,339 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (2,739 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (4,235 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.6% win rate (4,305 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (3,503 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.5% win rate (1,393 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (197 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (65%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 64.7% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (5,671 games)
  • Blitz: 48.9% win rate (9,595 games)
  • Rapid: 48.1% win rate (2,917 games)
  • Classical: 36.5% win rate (137 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (256 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (334 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (758 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (242 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (633 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,474 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (932 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (2,374 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (871 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (2,397 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (804 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,832 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (440 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (179 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (36.5%) by 14.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 40.1%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 508 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 43.6% (90% CI: 37.8%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 197 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.7%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.7%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.6%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit has a 36.5% (90% CI: 29.9%-43.3%) win rate for white (137 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.