22K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 53.1%), based on 22K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 53% → 24%
Best in Blitz (47%), worst in Bullet (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 22K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (7.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (47.1%) outperforms Classical (35.5%) by 11.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a sharpness score of 79.6 (drawish), meaning 79.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 27.1% (90% CI: 21.7%-32.7%) win rate for white, based on 174 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 22.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 39.8% (90% CI: 36.1%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 459 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 23.5% (90% CI: 22.6%-24.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 63.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 31.0% (90% CI: 30.0%-31.9%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 40.4%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.8%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.7%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.2%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.9%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted has a 35.5% (90% CI: 29.8%-41.4%) win rate for white (183 Lichess games). Draw rate is 25.2%.
The Sicilian Defense: Najdorf Variation, Poisoned Pawn Accepted is statistically favors white with a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.