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Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score59.9%Range (90% confident): 59.5% – 60.3%Based on 35K games
0%59.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 59.5% – 60.3%
Outcome Distribution
58.1%3.4%38.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Qa5
Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation
Analyzen=35K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 59.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 59.5% and 60.3%), based on 35K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Classical best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 61% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 61.4% win rate (7,366 games)
  • 1000-1199: 61.5% win rate (5,840 games)
  • 1200-1399: 59.1% win rate (6,482 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.2% win rate (5,345 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.2% win rate (3,484 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.7% win rate (4,050 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.4% win rate (1,520 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (1,010 games)
  • 2500+: 33.6% win rate (226 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (66%), worst in Blitz (57%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 64.4% win rate (150 games)
  • Bullet: 57.1% win rate (9,932 games)
  • Blitz: 56.5% win rate (17,444 games)
  • Rapid: 62.8% win rate (7,078 games)
  • Classical: 66.0% win rate (719 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (1,809 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (3,102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 66.5% expected score (2,392 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 75.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.7% expected score (3,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (1,237 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 75.8% expected score (86 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 66.5% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (1,445 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (3,581 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (1,304 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.8% expected score (105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.4% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (1,791 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (2,164 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.5% expected score (1,211 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 75.6% expected score (151 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (1,479 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (165 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (1,396 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (2,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (270 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (171 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (960 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (284 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (700 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (137 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 58.1% (90% CI: 57.7%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 61.4% win rate for white (7.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (66.0%) outperforms Blitz (56.5%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 61.4% (90% CI: 60.5%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 61.5% (90% CI: 60.5%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 59.1% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 58.2% (90% CI: 57.1%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 54.8%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 41.9%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 33.6% (90% CI: 28.6%-38.8%) win rate for white, based on 226 Lichess games. Average game length is 58 moves with a 29.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 64.4% (90% CI: 57.9%-70.6%) win rate for white (150 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.9%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.9%-57.1%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 62.8% (90% CI: 61.8%-63.7%) win rate for white (7.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation has a 66.0% (90% CI: 63.1%-68.9%) win rate for white (719 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Mongoose Variation is statistically favors white with a 58.1% (90% CI: 57.7%-58.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.