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Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit

798K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.0%

45%60%
Floor52.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.1%.

Measured over 798K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 798K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
798K
Best context
63.6% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
44.0% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.0 · Trap factor: +8.1 · 798K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.7% at 0-999, 50.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (6,732 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (18,423 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (7,292 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (15,434 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (36,162 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (17,654 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (25,421 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (59,216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (28,683 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (863 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (619 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (35,694 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (80,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (39,668 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (2,013 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (635 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (42,925 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (80,904 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (35,808 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (2,054 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (45,352 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (66,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (23,802 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (1,060 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (39,086 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (31,223 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (7,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.3% expected score (181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (30,435 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (6,766 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (6,318 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (352 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit scores 53.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.9% and 53.1% — from 798K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
798K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 798K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (162K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (380K games) against 54.5% in Rapid (162K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 114K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 158K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 162K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 137K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.6%, draws 6.1% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 247K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 380K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 162K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Marshall Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.