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Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation

27K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.0%Based on 27K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.0%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%3.5%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.g4
Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation
Analyzen=27K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 45.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 46.0%), based on 27K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.0% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.2% win rate (3,315 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.3% win rate (3,844 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.2% win rate (4,509 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.1% win rate (5,625 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.1% win rate (3,622 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.1% win rate (3,566 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.0% win rate (1,579 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.9% win rate (634 games)
  • 2500+: 49.7% win rate (74 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (44%), worst in Classical (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 36.3% win rate (55 games)
  • Bullet: 43.8% win rate (6,558 games)
  • Blitz: 44.3% win rate (13,891 games)
  • Rapid: 42.8% win rate (5,967 games)
  • Classical: 30.3% win rate (297 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (664 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (1,798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (829 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 15.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (723 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (2,089 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (993 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 29.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (964 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,325 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 33.0% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (1,761 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (2,410 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (1,342 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.3% expected score (103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,937 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (882 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,049 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (561 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (433 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (986 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (152 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (281 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (285 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (68 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 27K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 45.2% win rate for white (4.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (44.3%) outperforms Classical (30.3%) by 14.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.8%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 40.0%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 41.0%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 41.7%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 634 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.8%-44.8%) win rate for white (6.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.6%-45.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.8%-43.9%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation has a 30.3% (90% CI: 26.0%-34.8%) win rate for white (297 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Grob Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.