32K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.4%), based on 32K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 45% → 52%
Best in Blitz (49%), worst in Classical (40%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 32K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (2.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.7%) outperforms Classical (39.9%) by 8.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 37.8%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 306 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 39.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 653 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.6%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.2%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.0%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 42.4%-45.4%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation has a 39.9% (90% CI: 33.1%-46.9%) win rate for white (135 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.
The Sicilian Defense: Dragon Variation, Fianchetto Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.