77K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.1%), based on 77K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 61% → 51%
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 77K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.1%) outperforms Classical (44.1%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 38.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 757 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 43.8%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.7%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.2%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.8%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.
In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 40.0%-48.2%) win rate for white (390 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.2%.
The Sicilian Defense: Delayed Alapin Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.