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Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation

88K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.4%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.7%Based on 88K games
0%52.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%5.6%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Nxg5
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation
Analyzen=88K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.6%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.7%), based on 88K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.9% win rate (318 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.3% win rate (1,070 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.9% win rate (2,643 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.8% win rate (6,227 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.2% win rate (12,239 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.6% win rate (19,969 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.2% win rate (21,022 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.9% win rate (18,769 games)
  • 2500+: 38.7% win rate (5,442 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.9% win rate (80 games)
  • Bullet: 51.1% win rate (37,990 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (42,448 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (6,726 games)
  • Classical: 38.9% win rate (455 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (521 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (406 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (1,387 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (962 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (3,064 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,523 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (593 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (5,641 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (5,445 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (8,366 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (9,799 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,661 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (122 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (7,721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (11,520 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,690 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (7,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (10,118 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (955 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (3,502 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (303 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (118 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Continuations (4)
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Alatortsev System
44.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Ekstrom Variation
59.9%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation
35.7%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Szabo Variation
41.8%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 88K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 57.3% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (38.9%) by 12.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 318 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 57.3% (90% CI: 54.9%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.3%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 38.7% (90% CI: 37.6%-39.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 29.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.5%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.1%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.6%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a 38.9% (90% CI: 35.2%-42.7%) win rate for white (455 Lichess games). Draw rate is 29.9%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.