88K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.6%), based on 88K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~52%)
Similar across time controls (~50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 88K rated games from Lichess.
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.4%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 54.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 255 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 46.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 804 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 56 moves with a 16.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.9%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.7%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.
In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.0%) win rate for white (769 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.5%.
The Ruy Lopez: Closed, Chigorin Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.