TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit

244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.3%Based on 244K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%3.7%50.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...e5
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit
Analyzen=244K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 48.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.3%), based on 244K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +2.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.1 · Trap factor: -0.1 · n=244K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~43%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.7% win rate (41,210 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.7% win rate (30,677 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (30,044 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (31,506 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.6% win rate (31,580 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (31,418 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.9% win rate (25,432 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (18,076 games)
  • 2500+: 43.4% win rate (4,393 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.4% win rate (6,110 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (114,501 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (84,148 games)
  • Rapid: 40.9% win rate (38,165 games)
  • Classical: 37.5% win rate (1,412 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,943 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (19,749 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (13,269 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (8,271 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (13,548 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (8,334 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (338 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (493 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (9,896 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (12,629 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (6,662 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (364 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (1,393 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,873 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (12,083 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (4,764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (393 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (1,914 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (15,847 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (10,705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (2,992 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (19,890 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (8,389 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,608 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (53 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (408 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (19,660 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,899 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (15,989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (4,132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (253 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 244K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (31K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.2%) outperforms Bullet (47.9%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.7%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.2%) win rate for white (115K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.9%) win rate for white (84K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.5%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a 57.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-59.4%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.