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Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit

244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.2%

45%55%
Floor48.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.3%.

Measured over 244K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 244K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
244K
Best context
52.0% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
40.0% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +2.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.1 · Trap factor: −0.1 · 244K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.6% at 0-999, 42.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (7,943 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (19,749 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (13,269 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (8,271 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (13,548 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (8,334 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (338 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (493 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (9,896 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (12,629 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (6,662 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (364 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (1,393 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,873 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (12,083 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (4,764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.5% expected score (393 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (1,914 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (15,847 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (10,705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (2,992 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (19,890 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (8,389 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,608 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (53 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.7% expected score (408 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (19,660 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,899 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (15,989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (4,132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (253 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit scores 48.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.3% — from 244K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
244K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate?

Playing the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 244K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (31K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (84K games) against 43.5% in Rapid (38K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 115K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 84K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 37.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Shaviliuk Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.