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Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense

86K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.5%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.

Measured over 86K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 86K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
86K
Best context
53.0% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
44.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.1% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.6% at 0-999, 44.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,290 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (3,245 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,055 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (2,456 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (5,161 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,765 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (3,606 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (7,526 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (2,718 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (4,409 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (9,608 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (3,259 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (171 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.2% expected score (62 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,800 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (9,493 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (3,195 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (95 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,276 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (5,523 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,534 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,110 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (2,737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (954 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (76 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.8% — from 86K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
86K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 86K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (5.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.2% in Blitz (44K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 324 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 49.9%, draws 7.0% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 531 Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation, Fianchetto Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.5% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.