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Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation

595K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.5%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.6%Based on 595K games
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%5.2%44.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bg5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation
Analyzen=595K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.6%), based on 595K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.4% win rate (3,876 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (16,810 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (45,370 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.3% win rate (98,475 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (144,467 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.6% win rate (145,732 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.0% win rate (91,370 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.5% win rate (40,581 games)
  • 2500+: 40.0% win rate (8,736 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.1% win rate (502 games)
  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (180,537 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (329,354 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (81,291 games)
  • Classical: 46.2% win rate (3,733 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,715 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,735 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (426 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (6,910 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (7,995 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,883 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (15,677 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (24,120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (5,430 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (30,661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (54,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (13,187 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (507 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (40,186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (82,236 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20,727 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (37,413 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (84,325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (22,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,415 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (25,349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (52,081 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (13,451 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (449 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (16,358 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (20,579 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (3,555 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (6,268 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,244 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (197 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 595K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (45K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.1%) outperforms Classical (46.2%) by 7.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 144K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 146K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 39.1%-40.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 26.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-57.8%) win rate for white (502 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white (181K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (329K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (81K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-47.5%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.3%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Traditional Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.