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Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.3%Based on 2.0M games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.2% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
50.9%4.6%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nc3
Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation
Analyzen=2.0M
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 53.3%), based on 2.0M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.2% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.9% win rate (16,185 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.1% win rate (52,056 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (117,040 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.9% win rate (224,639 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.9% win rate (389,601 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.3% win rate (505,030 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (425,468 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.3% win rate (265,087 games)
  • 2500+: 51.8% win rate (51,680 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.8% win rate (2,736 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (855,733 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (985,590 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (193,533 games)
  • Classical: 49.2% win rate (9,194 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (5,754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (7,808 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (2,578 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (21,837 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (22,359 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (7,649 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (222 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (49,467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (51,463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (15,429 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (459 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (91,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (104,016 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (27,208 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (1,258 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (153,826 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (191,365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (40,646 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (2,797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (188,211 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (261,695 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (51,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (2,957 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (165,064 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (223,710 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (35,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (1,192 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (142,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (110,181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (12,405 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (320 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (37,972 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (12,993 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (650 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (63 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (52K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (55.8%) outperforms Classical (49.2%) by 6.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 117K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 225K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 390K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 505K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 425K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 265K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 54.2%-57.3%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.8%-51.9%) win rate for white (856K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.3%) win rate for white (986K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white (194K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.1%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.