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Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation

1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 51.7%Based on 1.5K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%5.5%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...f5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation
Analyzen=1.5K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 49.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 51.7%), based on 1.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.1% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 59%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.9% win rate (25 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.8% win rate (61 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.9% win rate (143 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (255 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.6% win rate (344 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.1% win rate (295 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (307 games)
  • 2500+: 58.5% win rate (66 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (522 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (879 games)
  • Rapid: 46.2% win rate (97 games)
  • Classical: 38.5% win rate (5 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (86 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (146 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (112 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (202 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (186 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (66 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.8%) outperforms Rapid (46.2%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 35.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 43.0%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 255 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 39.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 344 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 43.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 295 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 43.5%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-52.4%) win rate for white (522 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.4%) win rate for white (879 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Stonewall Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.