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Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.4%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.0%Based on 19K games
0%48.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%8.1%47.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Qa5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation
Analyzen=19K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.1%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 49.0%), based on 19K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 95.8 · Trap factor: +8.1 · n=19K

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 27% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 26.5% win rate (23 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (102 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (483 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.9% win rate (1,473 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (3,618 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.9% win rate (5,819 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.0% win rate (4,502 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.7% win rate (2,641 games)
  • 2500+: 33.3% win rate (183 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 46.9% win rate (6,026 games)
  • Blitz: 43.3% win rate (10,890 games)
  • Rapid: 41.7% win rate (1,838 games)
  • Classical: 40.3% win rate (89 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (237 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (581 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (775 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (112 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (990 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (2,254 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (354 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,535 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (3,599 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (650 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (2,591 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (507 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (1,357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (178 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (134 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (183 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.9%) outperforms Classical (50.3%) by -1.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a sharpness score of 91.9 (decisive), meaning 91.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 40.8%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 483 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 12.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-62.1%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.3%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.4%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.4%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, San Sebastian Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.