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Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation

488K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.4%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.5%Based on 488K games
0%51.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
49.0%4.7%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bg5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation
Analyzen=488K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 51.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 51.5%), based on 488K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.7% win rate (2,320 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (12,277 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (37,901 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (82,805 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (126,221 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.1% win rate (122,833 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (65,839 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (32,292 games)
  • 2500+: 48.7% win rate (5,113 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Rapid (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.5% win rate (480 games)
  • Bullet: 49.5% win rate (222,727 games)
  • Blitz: 48.6% win rate (220,266 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (42,641 games)
  • Classical: 50.6% win rate (1,487 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,236 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (936 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (6,690 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (4,761 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (809 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (17,777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (17,130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (2,917 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (34,019 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (40,741 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (7,695 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (253 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (50,059 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (63,119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (12,300 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (51,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (57,911 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (12,357 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (511 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (34,867 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25,575 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (5,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (22,067 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (9,090 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (1,111 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,064 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 488K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 49.2% win rate for white (126K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.5%) outperforms Rapid (48.0%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-58.2%) win rate for white (480 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.7%) win rate for white (223K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate for white (220K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.4%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Pillsbury Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.