7.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 55.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 56.5%), based on 7.3K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 58% → 51%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (32%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (55.3%) outperforms Blitz (51.2%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 54.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 116 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 53.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 392 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 940 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 922 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 639 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.6%-56.9%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.4%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-56.0%) win rate for white (717 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.