1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 47.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.9% and 49.5%), based on 1.3K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 73% → 36%
Best in Rapid (48%), worst in Classical (23%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 40.3%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (115 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (44.0%) outperforms Blitz (41.1%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a sharpness score of 90.7 (decisive), meaning 90.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 42.8%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 184 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 37.5% (90% CI: 32.2%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 224 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 37.5%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 471 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 36.1% (90% CI: 30.5%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 191 Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 15.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 40.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (443 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 38.2%-44.1%) win rate for white (749 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Kmoch Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.5% (90% CI: 40.3%-44.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.