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Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation

3.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.8%Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 54.8%Based on 3.5M games
0%54.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 54.8%
Outcome Distribution
52.8%3.9%43.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Nc3
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
Analyzen=3.5M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 54.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.7% and 54.8%), based on 3.5M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.8% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.6% win rate (80,081 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.6% win rate (217,784 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.0% win rate (427,089 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.7% win rate (673,664 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (812,784 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.8% win rate (711,873 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (380,633 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (168,457 games)
  • 2500+: 49.6% win rate (28,846 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.7% win rate (10,047 games)
  • Bullet: 53.0% win rate (1,453,981 games)
  • Blitz: 52.4% win rate (1,607,893 games)
  • Rapid: 53.4% win rate (412,185 games)
  • Classical: 55.8% win rate (17,105 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (256 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (29,079 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (39,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (11,471 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (86,053 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (98,699 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (31,912 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (1,829 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (168,812 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (195,073 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (59,669 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (1,706 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (3,531 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (263,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (313,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (88,800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (4,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (2,743 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (314,486 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (389,760 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (100,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (5,718 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (283,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (339,936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (83,523 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (3,958 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (185,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (163,057 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (31,182 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (919 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (101,024 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (62,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (5,250 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (21,818 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (301 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (52 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (218K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.8%) outperforms Blitz (52.4%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 218K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 427K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.6%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 674K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 813K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 712K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 381K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 168K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.5%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white (1.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.5%) win rate for white (1.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.6%) win rate for white (412K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.4%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.8%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.