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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.7%Based on 35K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.7%
Outcome Distribution
50.3%5.9%43.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Qc2
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation
Analyzen=35K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.7%), based on 35K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.6% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (16 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (128 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.6% win rate (461 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (1,335 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.7% win rate (3,014 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (5,942 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (10,321 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.7% win rate (11,225 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (2,318 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in UltraBullet (14%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (8,574 games)
  • Blitz: 50.4% win rate (22,759 games)
  • Rapid: 49.3% win rate (3,238 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (187 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (220 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (726 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (200 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (907 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,661 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (415 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,750 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (754 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (77 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,812 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (7,499 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (951 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,587 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (7,825 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (799 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,244 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (50 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line
46.7%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.4%) outperforms Classical (46.4%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 42.6%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 128 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 461 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.5%) win rate for white (8.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.9%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.7%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 40.5%-52.4%) win rate for white (187 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.5%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.