2.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 50.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 51.8%), based on 2.9K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 64% → 51%
Best in Classical (51%), worst in Blitz (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (200 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.7%) outperforms Rapid (48.4%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a sharpness score of 92.8 (decisive), meaning 92.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 43.2% (90% CI: 37.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 171 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 346 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 535 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 46.4% (90% CI: 43.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 819 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 45.4% (90% CI: 42.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 717 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 50.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 200 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 9.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.9%) win rate for white (637 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 43.8%-53.0%) win rate for white (318 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Variation, Flohr Line is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.