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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack

20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.7%Based on 20K games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.7%
Outcome Distribution
50.7%6.8%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.cxd5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack
Analyzen=20K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.8%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 54.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 54.7%), based on 20K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.0% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 61.0% win rate (19 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.7% win rate (104 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.3% win rate (366 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (1,508 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (4,514 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (7,236 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.2% win rate (5,432 games)
  • 2500+: 53.7% win rate (699 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (41%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 51.0% win rate (5,170 games)
  • Blitz: 50.7% win rate (12,843 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (1,778 games)
  • Classical: 41.4% win rate (94 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (185 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (643 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (741 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (972 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (3,059 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (446 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (5,170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (731 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (3,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (418 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (447 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 20K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (699 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.7%) outperforms Classical (41.4%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 50.7% (90% CI: 42.7%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 104 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 366 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 699 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.5%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rubinstein Attack is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.