2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 52.3%), based on 2.8K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 11% → 46%
Best in Blitz (50%), worst in Classical (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (719 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (49.6%) outperforms Rapid (45.5%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 37.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 41.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 268 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.1%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 545 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.9%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 805 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 719 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 250 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 43.2%-49.1%) win rate for white (764 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 41.0%-50.0%) win rate for white (325 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Rauzer Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.