3.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 53.3%), based on 3.8K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 71% → 52%
Best in Blitz (50%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (929 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.0%) outperforms Bullet (48.2%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 40.8%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 131 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.2%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 441 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 930 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 929 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 44.1%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 101 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 12.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.7%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.8%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-53.5%) win rate for white (476 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Pillsbury Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.