73K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.6%), based on 73K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 56% → 51%
Similar across time controls (~52%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 73K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.0% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (52.3%) by -1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 56.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 557 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.2%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.5%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.1%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.
In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line has a 52.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-56.7%) win rate for white (355 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.1%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.