168 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation has a 60.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.1% and 66.4%), based on 168 Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 52%
Best in Rapid (64%), worst in Classical (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-63.7%) win rate for white, based on 168 rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 64.1% win rate for white (57 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 47.7%-62.7%) win rate for white (117 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation is statistically favors white with a 57.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-63.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.