11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 49.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 50.5%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 51%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (36%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (47.8%) outperforms Classical (36.4%) by 11.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 223 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.6%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 260 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.5%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.3%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-46.7%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.6%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Henneberger Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.