13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 47.3%), based on 13K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 34%
Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (32%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.6% win rate for white (381 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.5%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 225 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 52.4%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 381 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.0%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.4%) win rate for white (8.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 42.8%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Fianchetto Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.