TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation

3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 51.4%Based on 3.3K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%12.3%43.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
14...Qxe5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation
Analyzen=3.3K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness88%
Draw Rate12.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 51.4%), based on 3.3K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.9% win rate (8 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (36 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.1% win rate (199 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (568 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (1,196 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.7% win rate (1,137 games)
  • 2500+: 35.7% win rate (182 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (36%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (743 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (2,322 games)
  • Rapid: 40.5% win rate (254 games)
  • Classical: 35.5% win rate (14 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199————
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (107 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (86 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (427 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (181 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (907 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (262 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (786 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 42.5%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (44.4%) outperforms Rapid (42.1%) by 2.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 87.7 (moderately decisive), meaning 87.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 34.5%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 199 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 37.0% (90% CI: 33.7%-40.3%) win rate for white, based on 568 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 11.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.0%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 11.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 11.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 37.9% (90% CI: 32.1%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 182 Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 26.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 39.9%-45.9%) win rate for white (743 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-46.1%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 37.0%-47.2%) win rate for white (254 Lichess games). Draw rate is 17.4%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 43.9% (90% CI: 42.5%-45.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.