468 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 51.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 54.8%), based on 468 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 43% → 18%
Best in Classical (64%), worst in Bullet (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 468 rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (148 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (48.6%) outperforms Bullet (45.3%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 51.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 148 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 49.1% (90% CI: 42.2%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 138 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 45.3% (90% CI: 38.3%-52.4%) win rate for white (132 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-53.6%) win rate for white (275 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca System is slightly favors black with a 48.7% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.